Country first.

Everyone send this to Senator John McCain (R-AZ).

Organizing for America sent out an email telling members of its mailing list to call and tell Senator McCain not to filibuster the Defense bill because of “don’t ask, don’t tell.”

But I disagree. The Senator should filibuster the bill. He should get every Republican in the Senate to filibuster it with him. I would love to see the news cycle from here to Election Day be nothing but all the Senate’s Republicans taking turns reading phone books so that they can prevent the passage of a defense bill during wartime. Country first.

The houses of war and peace

Andrew Sullivan:

My point, I suppose, is that this kind of cycle in this kind of environment is something that once started, no one can stop. It is a function of fringe Christian fundamentalism finally engaging fringe Islamist fundamentalism in a war of increasing terror and intolerance in a seamless global media world. It is the responsibility of all of us of actual faith rather than fanaticism to stand up and oppose this before it engulfs us all.

The Long War is only the military theatre of a much greater struggle. The world’s two largest Abrahamic civilizations are Islam and the West, and within each is a house of war and a house of peace. What divides them is the difference between those who want a total war of one civilization against the other, and those who don’t. The most ancient Abrahamic civilization, the Jewish people, are uniquely situated in the center of it all, and their own houses of war and peace, along with those of Muslims in Palestine, may well set the example the world follows.

I started saying this to my fellow Americans about Osama and his allies, but it applies universally to the other civilization’s house of war: They don’t want to destroy us. They want us to destroy ourselves.

What happens

“If you do not finish the job, we will be enemies.”

~a friend from Afghanistan (he means our countries)

Yes, it’s rather sensationalist. The basic point is still correct.

When Time published this, elements of the blogosphere opposed to the war were outraged that someone would dare to do something like this. Who are these people, to remind us of the likely consequences of our country’s actions?

Because really, this is true. If the U.S. leaves, Afghanistan breaks down into civil war–real civil war, like it had before–and a lot more eighteen year old girls lose their noses. And ears. They also cut off her ears.

So there are three forms of denial:

1. Sure, there would probably be a nose-cutting civil war, but that isn’t our fault.

2. Sure, there would probably be a nose-cutting civil war, but that doesn’t matter.

3. There will be no nose-cutting civil war.

Andrew (hat tip for the image) takes number 1.:

We were not responsible for these evils when they were perpetrated for years before 9/11. And we are not responsible now. After ten years, I’d say the American soldier’s burden in trying to alleviate the awful consequences of Jihadist rule is completed.

Really, Andrew? Flashback. It’s 1979, and Wikipedia has just been invented:

The U.S. saw the situation as a prime opportunity to weaken the Soviet Union. As part of a Cold War strategy, in 1979 the United States government (under President Jimmy Carter) began to covertly fund forces ranged against the pro-Soviet government, although warned that this might prompt a Soviet intervention, according to President Carter’s National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski. Brzezinski described the U.S. activities as the successful setting of a trap that drew the Soviet Union into “its Vietnam War” and brought about the breakup of the Soviet empire. Regarding U.S. support for Islamic fundamentalism, Brzezinski said, “What is most important to the history of the world? The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet empire? Some stirred-up Moslems or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the cold war?”^[85] The Mujahideen belonged to various different factions, but all shared, to varying degrees, a similarly conservative ‘Islamic’ ideology.

Here is more Brzezinski:

Q: Despite this risk, you were an advocate of this covert action. But perhaps you yourself desired this Soviet entry into war and looked to provoke it?

B: It isn’t quite that. We didn’t push the Russians to intervene, but we knowingly increased the probability that they would.

Q: When the Soviets justified their intervention by asserting that they intended to fight against a secret involvement of the United States in Afghanistan, people didn’t believe them. However, there was a basis of truth. You don’t regret anything today?

B: Regret what? That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it? The day that the Soviets officially crossed the border, I wrote to President Carter. We now have the opportunity of giving to the USSR its Vietnam war. Indeed, for almost 10 years, Moscow had to carry on a war unsupportable by the government, a conflict that brought about the demoralization and finally the breakup of the Soviet empire.

The Mujahideen you must remember, are now largely enemies of the Taliban. The Northern Alliance and the warlords are largely the same crowd, though of course there are many Mujahideen.

The Mujahideen, with our weapons, money, and training, provoke a Soviet invasion, and then go on to defeat the Soviet puppet government. Then, with our weapons, money, and training, continue to fight the Soviet Union’s equivalent of our Karzai government. In doing so, they destroy the country’s infrastructure and commit all sorts of atrocities. My Afghan friends over here tell me they used to behead people with swords. When the Mujahideen win, they begin to fight amongst themselves.

Into this violent power vacuum, which was created by the weapons, money, and training of the United States, emerge the Taliban. They’re a fundamentalist Pashtun movement originally from Kandahar. This causes two major Mujahadeen leaders, one Uzbek and one Tajik, to unite and form the Northern Alliance. Both of these groups are very conservative and fond of Shari’a. The distinction is mostly ethnic: Taliban are Pashtun, and the Northern Alliance are non-Pashtun.

Two detours. One, ethnicity: Pashtuns are the largest group, but the other groups all together outnumber them. Pashtuns are the historic leaders of the country, and they do not like sharing power. They also have a much more cohesive ethnic-national identity than any other group. The Taliban are almost all Pashtun, as is Karzai and his government, which is why Karzai is not willing to do what it takes to defeat them. Pashtuns live on the other side of the meaningless border with Pakistan, which is where they do most of their recruiting and coordinating. That’s why we bomb Pakistan with predator drones. Pakistan lets us, even though they want the Taliban to win, because we give them money to fight the Taliban, which they use to prepare for war with India. There’s no figuring countries in cold wars.

Second detour: the Tajik Mujahideen leader is called Ahmed Shah Massoud. He is moderate as these guys go, friendly with the West, and ambitious. In April of 2001 he gives a speech in Brussels saying that al-Qaeda and the Taliban are allies, and that a major terrorist attack is imminent. On September 9th he is killed by a suicide bomber.

Back to the story. The Taliban eventually win control of the country in 1998, which they celebrate by executing 4-5,000 civilians and torturing quite a few more. But they never quite beat the Northern Alliance, who wage a guerilla war from the 10% of the country they still control. This guerilla war was ongoing when al-Qaeda carried out 9/11. The Northern Alliance was a major ally in our initial invasion of the country.

So: to recap, the United States started a war in Afghanistan thirty-one years ago and has been, on-and-off, funding and supporting a loose coalition of factions who have been, on-and-off, waging war in Afghanistan since then. So when Andrew says,

We were not responsible for these evils when they were perpetrated for years before 9/11. And we are not responsible now.

he is extremely wrong.

2. Sure, they would probably get nose-cutting civil war, but that doesn’t matter.

This summed up by Yglesias:

Defend Afghan allies from being targeted by the Taliban. Check. Avoid accidental killing of Afghans by NATO forces. Check. Women’s rights? Not so much.

And you can see this time and again if you look at statements about US policy in Afghanistan from George W Bush, Dick Cheney, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Donald Rumsfeld, Robert Gates, Stanley McChrystal, David Petraeus, etc. We are fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan. …actually altering social conditions in southern and eastern Afghanistan isn’t on the list of war aims.

And that makes sense. After all “invade and conquer southern and eastern Afghanistan” is neither a practical nor a cost-effective means of enhancing the well-being of the world’s women. You go to war for reasons of national security. Those reasons either stand up to scrutiny or they don’t.

Okay. Forget human rights. Realpolitik. We leave. Civil war. We keep funding the Mujahideen. The Taliban do some horrible things they’ve been fantasizing about for nine years. But really, what’s a few ears and noses more or less? Surely generations of Afghans blaming the United States for the severed faces of their granddaughters, daughters, sisters, mothers, and grandmothers will have no effect on our country, just as funding, arming and training the Mujahideen had no effect on our country thirty-one years ago.

At present, most Afghans (yes, most) want to be friends with us, despite everything we’ve done to them. They are on our side. The non-Pashtun regions of the country are largely peaceful, Taliban-free, and friendly to us. If we leave, the Taliban take those regions back. Taliban and al Qaeda win a major victory. Radical Islamism, now a winning ideology, rises throughout the Muslim world. Afghanistan is once again a base of operations for international terrorism. They know that they can defeat us, and they know how. Plot carefully, kill American civilians, kill the Americans attacking your base of operations, kill the Americans rebuilding the country, kill the Americans until they leave, plot carefully, kill American civilians…

Our strategy in this war has in many ways been lacking, but we can win. Build the infrastructure, enlist our allies–and for all their faults, the Mujahideen are our allies–, empower local leaders and local militia (the government is full of Taliban sympathizers), bring in regional partners, especially India, who the Afghans tend to view favorably, continue to refine our counterinsurgency doctrine, recognize the nature of the ethnic divisions, see if we can’t buy Iran’s neutrality (those sanctions aren’t doing any good), start buying up poppy crops, let the boys and girls do their jobs, and give the general what he needs. But this, above all, recognize: it takes time. It will seem impossible, and it will seem endless, but with sufficient will, on the other side, we win.

In the meantime, let’s keep some perspective. We have been exporting suffering to this country for three decades and most of them still support us. We can share in their struggle for some of that time, can we not? In historical perspective, our casualties in this our longest war are low.

3. There won’t be a nose-cutting civil war.

Go on the record with that.

Well, this changes things

Huge mineral deposits in Afghanistan, including the all-important Lithium, previously found almost exclusively in Bolivia.

WASHINGTON — The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself, according to senior American government officials.

Expect China.

Britain’s greatest children

India and the United States are finally sitting down in a meaningful way.

If I’m named ambassador to India, my refrain is, “What’s it gonna take to get Indian troops on the ground in Afghanistan?” If this pisses off Pakistan, tough terrain. They’ve been playing us for the past nine years. Niet!

If it scares China, we should be willing to make some concessions, but a stable Afghanistan is in their interests as well. China has been establishing a strong economic presence in the country–as they are everywhere else–and this is somewhat troubling but ultimately a good thing. Anything that connects Afghanistan to the world goes towards the war effort.

For those of you who think the war’s unwinnable, ask an Afghan. They don’t even think we’re trying.

“What the fuck did you shoot my dog for? That was a good dog! She was probably trying to play with you!”

If this doesn’t make you angry, there is something wrong with you.

He is being arrested for a misdemeanor. One of the dogs was in a cage and the other was a corgi. Killing dogs is standard operating procedure, or at least very common. The little boy in the video is seven years old.

When we didn’t fear Mohammad

Before Muslims were so much Other that we needed to structure our television planning around the most violent and reactionary among them.

Is this what we’ve become?

A small but telling news story:

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama’s nominee to head the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel has withdrawn her bid for confirmation, after several Republicans objected to her criticism of the Bush administration’s terrorist interrogation policies.

The euphamism “terrorist interrogation policies” means systemic torture of suspects, many of whom were innocent. Being against torture makes you ineligible for legal office now, apparently. Even when those radical leftists, the Democrats, are in power. Sometimes I can muster nothing but disgust for our political culture.

An open letter to President Obama, who has just made the biggest mistake of his presidency:

I have just sent this message to the White House, because I am concerned. If you share my concerns, please share this letter.

—

Dear Sir,

Mr. President, I have just read confirmation of your authorization to assassinate Anwar al-Awlaki, American citizen, no matter where he is found. I write to ask you to rescind this order immediately.

I voted for you in part because I feared further expansion of executive power. Though I knew that no President will relinquish all power granted by previous administrations, I trusted you, as a respected Constitutional scholar, to exercise good judgment, and to not expand upon the powers claimed by the Bush White House.

With respect, Mr. President, you have betrayed my faith in you.

The fourth amendment to the U.S. Constitution clearly states that all citizens of this Republic have the right to a speedy and public trial by a jury of their peers. Radical clerics, members of al Qaeda, terrorists. If they are American citizens, they get a trial. It is supreme Law of the Land.

We make exceptions under your Constitutional role as Commander-in-Chief of our armed forces. But this order does not apply to our military, or to any conflict we are legally fighting. It transcends all international borders and legal barriers up to and including the Constitution of the United States of America.

I was concerned about the bombing campaign in Pakistan, by your decision to ignore the institutionalized torture of the Bush years, by the time it’s taken to close our prison facility at Guantanamo Bay. But these are complex issues. Balancing many contradictions, you must make difficult decisions for the good of all.

But this decision to assassinate a citizen wherever he is found–surrounded by children, within the borders of a nuclear-armed nation, on American soil–is too much. It crosses a line. You cross it, and so do we all.

You know that such executive powers are difficult and sometimes impossible to repeal. When you cross this line in our name, you also do so in the names of your successors. Our descendants may never live in a world where America does not kill citizens that the President decrees enemies of the state.

What will be your legacy, Mr. President? Healthcare reform and victory in the conflicts you’ve inherited? Or a United States of America that hunts and kills beyond the law, beyond its borders, and beyond the very principles of its sacred founding document?

You are better than this, Mr. President. We are better than this. Please, sir, bring us back, before it is too late.

Sincerely,

Matthew Metcalf Rigney, citizen.

Preparations for the next Battle of Mogadishu

Via Thomas Barnett, an article about the plans of the Somali government to retake the capital:

The Somali government has tried limited offensives before and has failed, leaving much of the country in the hands of Al Shabab, who have chopped off heads, banned music and brought a harsh and alien version of Islam to Somalia.

But officials say that this offensive, or at least the preparations for it, feels different. First, the government has the advantage of numbers, about 6,000 to 10,000 freshly trained troops, compared with about 5,000 on the side of Al Shabab and its allies.

In the past six months, Somalia has farmed out young men to Djibouti, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya and even Sudan for military instruction and most are now back in the capital, waiting to fight. There are also about 5,000 Ugandan and Burundian peacekeepers, with 1,700 more on their way, and they are expected to play a vital role in backing up advancing Somali forces.

The government is also better armed and equipped. Parked in neat rows behind Villa Somalia, the president’s hilltop villa in the center of Mogadishu, are newly painted military trucks, tanks, armored personnel carriers and dozens of “technicals,” pickup trucks with their windshields sawed off and a cannon riveted on the back of each one. The government also recently bought 10 Chevrolet ambulances.

There seems to be a qualitative difference, too. Somalia’s forces are now led by General Gelle, a colonel in Somalia’s army decades ago who most recently was an assistant manager at a McDonald’s in Germany. He is known among Somali war veterans as one of the best Somali officers still alive.

The U.S. is lending quiet support to this operation:

Most of the American military assistance to the Somali government has been focused on training, or has been channeled through African Union peacekeepers. But that could change. An American official in Washington, who said he was not authorized to speak publicly, predicted that American covert forces would get involved if the offensive, which could begin in a few weeks, dislodged Qaeda terrorists.

“What you’re likely to see is airstrikes and Special Ops moving in, hitting and getting out,” the official said…

Washington is also using its heft as the biggest supplier of humanitarian aid to Somalia to encourage private aid agencies to move quickly into “newly liberated areas” and deliver services like food and medicine to the beleaguered Somali people in an effort to make the government more popular.

This is as it should be. We are not going it alone here, ready to leave at the first American casualty. We’re lending assistance to a fundamentally Somali operation, and channeling much of our aid through regional powers. Meanwhile, our Leviathan spearhead (i.e., the guys you play as in the Modern Warfare games) appear only briefly, targeting Base operatives and, when the operation is in the balance, descending as God from the machine.*

What we–our side in this war–must think about before the operation starts is what to do after it ends. The U.S. can’t assume that everything is fine just because the operation succeeds. The twenty-first century lives between war and peace. It’s not over when it’s over.

*al Qaeda is Arabic for “the Base.” Deus ex machina is Greek for “God from the machine.”